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Abstract Kelp forests form some of the most productive areas on earth and are proposed to sequester carbon in the ocean, largely in the form of released dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Here we investigate the role of environmental, seasonal and age-related physiological gradients on the partitioning of net primary production (NPP) into DOC by the canopy forming giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera). Rates of DOC production were strongly influenced by an age-related decline in physiological condition (i.e. senescence). During the mature stage of giant kelp development, DOC production was a small and constant fraction of NPP regardless of tissue nitrogen content or light intensity. When giant kelp entered its senescent phase, DOC production increased substantially and was uncoupled from NPP and light intensity. Compositional analysis of giant kelp-derived DOC showed that elevated DOC production during senescence was due to the solubilization of biomass carbon, rather than by direct exudation. We coupled our incubation and physiological experiments to a novel satellite-derived 20-year time series of giant kelp canopy biomass and physiology. Annual DOC production by giant kelp varied due to differences in standing biomass between years, but on average, 74% of the annual DOC production by giant kelp was due to senescence. This study suggests DOC may be a more important fate of macroalgal NPP than previously recognized. 

Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs) are an important tool for conserving coastal marine ecosystems, with well‐documented benefits for fished species. However, their potential to benefit non‐exploited species, such as primary producers in kelp forest ecosystems, is less well understood, particularly under escalating climate change impacts.In this study, we used four decades of remote sensing to examine the effects of 54 MPAs on kelp canopy coverage and assess how these effects influence kelp resilience to marine heatwaves. We developed a method for identifying paired reference (control) sites using historical satellite data and then used Before‐After Control‐Impact Paired Series analysis to examine whether the implementation of MPAs leads to increases in kelp coverage. In addition to examining changes in kelp coverage before and after MPA implementation, we also analysed the effect of MPAs on the resistance and recovery of kelp canopy coverage to a series of severe marine heatwaves in the North Pacific between 2014 and 2016.We found that the implementation of MPAs led to a modest positive effect with an 8.5% increase in kelp coverage compared to reference areas, though effects varied across MPAs.The positive effect of MPAs became more evident following the marine heatwaves, with kelp forests in MPAs showing greater recovery than in reference sites, particularly in southern California.Synthesis and applications. Our results provide empirical evidence of the potential role of MPAs as climate adaptation tools and highlight that well‐managed MPAs can support ecosystem stability under increasing climate stress. 

Abstract Spatial synchrony is the tendency for population fluctuations to be correlated among different locations. This phenomenon is a ubiquitous feature of population dynamics and is important for ecosystem stability, but several aspects of synchrony remain unresolved. In particular, the extent to which any particular mechanism, such as dispersal, contributes to observed synchrony in natural populations has been difficult to determine. To address this gap, we leveraged recent methodological improvements to determine how dispersal structures synchrony in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a global marine foundation species that has served as a useful system for understanding synchrony. We quantified population synchrony and fecundity with satellite imagery across 11 years and 880 km of coastline in southern California, USA, and estimated propagule dispersal probabilities using a high‐resolution ocean circulation model. Using matrix regression models that control for the influence of geographic distance, resources (seawater nitrate), and disturbance (destructive waves), we discovered that dispersal was an important driver of synchrony. Our findings were robust to assumptions about propagule mortality during dispersal and consistent between two metrics of dispersal: (1) the individual probability of dispersal and (2) estimates of demographic connectivity that incorporate fecundity (the number of propagules dispersing). We also found that dispersal and environmental conditions resulted in geographic clusters with distinct patterns of synchrony. This study is among the few to statistically associate synchrony with dispersal in a natural population and the first to do so in a marine organism. The synchronizing effects of dispersal and environmental conditions on foundation species, such as giant kelp, likely have cascading effects on the spatial stability of biodiversity and ecosystem function. 

Abstract Biodiversity can stabilize ecological communities through biological insurance, but climate and other environmental changes may disrupt this process via simultaneous ecosystem destabilization and biodiversity loss. While changes to diversity–stability relationships (DSRs) and the underlying mechanisms have been extensively explored in terrestrial plant communities, this topic remains largely unexplored in benthic marine ecosystems that comprise diverse assemblages of producers and consumers. By analyzing two decades of kelp forest biodiversity survey data, we discovered changes in diversity, stability, and their relationships at multiple scales (biological organizational levels, spatial scales, and functional groups) that were linked with the most severe marine heatwave ever documented in the North Pacific Ocean. Moreover, changes in the strength of DSRs during/after the heatwave were more apparent among functional groups than both biological organizational levels (population vs. ecosystem levels) and spatial scales (local vs. broad scales). Specifically, the strength of DSRs decreased for fishes, increased for mobile invertebrates and understory algae, and were unchanged for sessile invertebrates during/after the heatwave. Our findings suggest that biodiversity plays a key role in stabilizing marine ecosystems, but the resilience of DSRs to adverse climate impacts primarily depends on the functional identities of ecological communities. 

Spatial synchrony, the tendency for populations across space to show correlated fluctuations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, linked to central topics of ecology such as population cycling, extinction risk, and ecosystem stability. A common mechanism of spatial synchrony is the Moran effect, whereby spatially synchronized environmental signals drive population dynamics and hence induce population synchrony. After reviewing recent progress in understanding Moran effects, we here elaborate a general theory of how Moran effects of different environmental drivers acting on the same populations can interact, either synergistically or destructively, to produce either substantially more or markedly less population synchrony than would otherwise occur. We provide intuition for how this newly recognized mechanism works through theoretical case studies and application of our theory to California populations of giant kelp. We argue that Moran interactions should be common. Our theory and analysis explain an important new aspect of a fundamental feature of spatiotemporal population dynamics. 

Cross-ecosystem subsidies are critical to ecosystem structure and function, especially in recipient ecosystems where they are the primary source of organic matter to the food web. Subsidies are indicative of processes connecting ecosystems and can couple ecological dynamics across system boundaries. However, the degree to which such flows can induce cross-ecosystem cascades of spatial synchrony, the tendency for system fluctuations to be correlated across locations, is not well understood. Synchrony has destabilizing effects on ecosystems, adding to the importance of understanding spatiotemporal patterns of synchrony transmission. In order to understand whether and how spatial synchrony cascades across the marine-terrestrial boundary via resource subsidies, we studied the relationship between giant kelp forests on rocky nearshore reefs and sandy beach ecosystems that receive resource subsidies in the form of kelp wrack (detritus). We found that synchrony cascades from rocky reefs to sandy beaches, with spatiotemporal patterns mediated by fluctuations in live kelp biomass, wave action, and beach width. Moreover, wrack deposition synchronized local abundances of shorebirds that move among beaches seeking to forage on wrack-associated invertebrates, demonstrating that synchrony due to subsidies propagates across trophic levels in the recipient ecosystem. Synchronizing resource subsidies likely play an underappreciated role in the spatiotemporal structure, functioning, and stability of ecosystems. 

Giant kelp and bull kelp forests are increasingly at risk from marine heatwave events, herbivore outbreaks, and the loss or alterations in the behavior of key herbivore predators. The dynamic floating canopy of these kelps is well-suited to study via satellite imagery, which provides high temporal and spatial resolution data of floating kelp canopy across the western United States and Mexico. However, the size and complexity of the satellite image dataset has made ecological analysis difficult for scientists and managers. To increase accessibility of this rich dataset, we created Kelpwatch, a web-based visualization and analysis tool. This tool allows researchers and managers to quantify kelp forest change in response to disturbances, assess historical trends, and allow for effective and actionable kelp forest management. Here, we demonstrate how Kelpwatch can be used to analyze long-term trends in kelp canopy across regions, quantify spatial variability in the response to and recovery from the 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave events, and provide a local analysis of kelp canopy status around the Monterey Peninsula, California. We found that 18.6% of regional sites displayed a significant trend in kelp canopy area over the past 38 years and that there was a latitudinal response to heatwave events for each kelp species. The recovery from heatwave events was more variable across space, with some local areas like Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur showing high recovery while kelp canopies around the Monterey Peninsula continued a slow decline and patchy recovery compared to the rest of the Central California region. Kelpwatch provides near real time spatial data and analysis support and makes complex earth observation data actionable for scientists and managers, which can help identify areas for research, monitoring, and management efforts.